Signs of Bucks County progress against COVID-19 are out there. Vaccination levels are up. Prevention measures such as washing hands and social distancing are established as habitual. 

But determining when the pandemic is truly over is not a simple task, writes David Murrell for Philadelphia Magazine. 

According to the health experts, as much as it might seem that the end of the pandemic is near, it’s still far off. 

“These things don’t necessarily end cleanly,” said University of Pennsylvania epidemiology professor Michael Levy. “It’s not super-helpful to ever claim victory over a pathogen.” 

Keeping our pandemic future frustratingly unclear is the lack of set benchmarks on what would constitute its end. Possible targets include the oft-cited immunity threshold of 70 or 80 percent of the population and a consistently low number of new daily cases. 

Neither seems to be near, as the demand for vaccines is already falling and the number of new cases continues to grow. 

Some experts believe that the virus will never go away. But life will shoulder on, as it does, in a middle ground. At some undetermined point, caseloads will hover between out-and-out pandemic levels and complete extermination. 

Read more about the projected arc of this pandemic in Philadelphia Magazine.