Science behind the Statuettes: Upper Dublin Mathematician Correctly Calculates Oscar Winners

By
Ben Zauzmer Montgomery County author
Ben Zauzmer’s book, Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.

An Upper Dublin, Montgomery County, native watched Sunday night’s Oscar with special interest, reports Alicia VItarelli for 6abc.

Ben Zauzmer designed a unique method to predict the big winners. It wasn’t based on box office receipts, or Facebook likes or even his own fandom.

Its foundation is sheer science.

He collected his thinking in a book, Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind The Biggest Night in Hollywood.

“I’ve always been an Oscars fan and I’d always been a math guy,” Zauzmer said.

He watches all the nominated movies, but notes that his forecasting is all about analytics.

The Montco resident’s theories on winners and non-winners (nobody’s a loser at the Academy Awards) at Harvard University. During his freshman year, he started applying mathematic concepts to predict Oscar winners.

In the past 10 years, the movies he chooses pan out as correct.

“Whichever nominee the model identifies as having the highest percentage chance to win, won 77% of the time,” he said.

“Personally, my [2020] favorite is Promising Young Woman, which I think is was a spectacular movie and social commentary,” Zauzmer said.

“It’s looking more and more likely that the front runner is Nomadland. Daniel Kaluuya has won absolutely everything for Judas and the Black Messiah, so he is the strong front runner for Best Supporting Actor.”

Zauzmer got these exactly correct.

Currently, Zauzmer is the Director of Baseball Analytics for the New York Mets, putting his math skills to use there.

Read more about the 93rd Oscars Awards Show and the predictions of Ben Zauzmer at 6abc.

Advertisement